Monday March 8, 2010

The markets are open I have my trading platform loaded.  I see a myriad of flashing green and red lights on my screen.  I must say I am a bit uneasy but I am moving forward.  This is another test for me in the process of getting out and staying out of my comfort zone.  Today is the first day I am going to start building my April portfolio. I am looking at an option chain of the SPY.  The spreads are tight.  Looking at the April options, there are 39 DTE.  The daily price chart shows we are close to a yearly high.  I want to keep the call side of the trade closer to the current price, thinking the prior high will be a significant resistance point.  With that I routed the 116/118, 109/107 for 94 cents, 2 pennies better than the mid.  The 116 is a bit close to current price but I like the credit and feel the prior high could be significant.

The DIA has a similar pattern.  Think I will be a bit more cautious and route calls a higher than resistance. With the Diamonds trading around 106.32,  I routed the 108/110, 100/98 for 84 cents.  A bit higher than the mid, but I am not in a big rush to get a fill.  I want premium.   I am looking to sell a call for as much premium as I can get but I am also looking at the probability of expiring.  What this means is simply what percent chance does this option have of expiring in the money.  I want as low a probability as I can get while still getting some premium for the option.  I am looking for 90 cents for the iron condor but I am not going to get it.

The EEM is a product I want to trade double calendars.  There are no May options yet so I am going to wait until March expiration.

The IWM is at yearly highs.  I have decided to do a double calendar on this product.  This is simply an out-of-the money (OTM) call and put calendar routed as a single trade.  Like the DIA & SPY, I am a bit concerned about this big advance and feel we are due for a pullback.  Looking at April/May options I like the risk graph of the 65 put and 68 call double calendar.  This trade was routed for a debit of $1.49, again a few cents better than the mid price.

I left around noon for the day.  I was filled on the IWM double calendar while the other iron condors were still working.  The image below is the risk graph of the trade.  The vertical axis is profit/loss; the horizontal axis is the price.  The curved red line is the profit/loss of the trade at April expiration.  The white curved line is the profit/loss today (March 9); the vertical red dotted line is the closing price of the IWM.  The trade is already slightly profitable, which is not usually the case.  The IWM has really tight bid/ask spreads on its options and I was aggressive on my entry price.  That has helped me already in the trade.

Sunday March 7, 2010

This following is going to be a journal of my newest venture, iron condor and double calendar option trading.  A few years ago, I took a course called “Become a Hands-Off Millionaire” It taught trading iron condors on the SPX & RUT indices.

I had some success trading irons, but also took two substantial losses.  Part of it was my fault, in reality it was entirely my fault.  However looking back, I had NO business trading those products.  This new journey is a result of me taking yet another trading course.  The idea behind these strategies is to capture the time decay of option premium.  The objectives are to manage risk and trade my plan.

The products I will be trading are liquid, have tight bid/ask spreads and are heavily traded.  These are the DIA, EEM, IWM & SPY.  Trades will be initiated 30-40 days prior to expiration.  Trades will be managed and adjusted as required.  I will start out with 1-2 contracts in each product.  Paper trading is an option but I believe that by having real positions, it will keep me involved and I will learn more too. I will probably sell iron condors in a couple and buy double calendars in the others.

In the previous course we were taught to route the iron condors as individual spreads.  Today, I am routing as iron condors.  I was always petrified that the index would move dramatically against both of my short strikes.  If it did (and believe me IT DID) there was no adjustment taught, we were told to get out.  We of course were told that we could “negotiate” price.  Well I have found about 90% of the time the only way I could “haggle” was if the underlying moved causing the option prices to go in my favor.

Today, there are 40 days to expiration (DTE) for April options.  I will route trades a bit better than the mid.  It is not imperative that I get filled this instant.  I get my price or I re-evaluate and re-route tomorrow.

Good Article by Oliver Velez

Commentary by our very own, Joe Federhofer:

Yes,  Owen a good article from Oliver Velez about accumulating wealth over time. When you look at real numbers below you realize it is basic math that our government and many governments will have to go bankrupt or at least revalue that dollar which is happening as we speak.  Big money knows cash is trash and going into gold, silver, real-estate,  like farm land, and oil.

Naturally commodity plays like broken wing butterflys on gld and even buying gld have worked really well.

To be perfectly honest buying broken wing butterflies are boring but they work, LOL!   Other symbols, which I have done well with are fcx, and slv.   I have just bought on the dips and trail stop losses at about 25%.   I just buy more shares on the dips and set trailing stop losses.  The thing with commodities is they move a lot,  so you have to just believe in what you are doing and respect your stop losses.

To very briefly summarize the problem, the U.S. Treasury has moved its obligations “down the curve” – meaning most of its debts will come due in a very short amount of time. This reduces the carrying costs of our obligations, but leaves us vulnerable to disaster if our creditors decide not to “roll over” our obligations.

I estimate the Treasury will need to borrow at least $3 trillion in 2010 to cover our current deficit (which will likely be more than $1.5 trillion) and repay older debts coming due. In total, the Treasury must find a way to refinance more than half our total debt in the next four years – while at the same time fund record annual deficits that now exceed 10% of GDP.

I don’t believe these debts will be repaid or refinanced. In fact, I don’t believe it’s even remotely possible. Our largest creditor, China, buys around $600 billion in Treasury obligations each year. The rest of our creditors buy another $250 billion or so. Americans, in total, save about 5% of GDP – or around $500 billion. So assuming demand remains robust for our debt obligations and every penny of our domestic savings are invested in Treasuries, we could borrow up to around $1.4 trillion each year – at the very most. Currently, our annual deficits exceed this amount. Meanwhile, we’ve got to find a way to repay or refinance more than $4 trillion in the next three years. It can’t be done. And that’s why the Fed has bought more than $300 billion of Treasury securities in the past year.

Now, if inflation heats up (and it will as more and more of our debt is “monetized” by the Fed) what are the chances our creditors will either demand much higher interest rates (which we can’t afford) or simply abandon the Treasury market? Some people say there’s no chance our creditors will abandon us. Really? What does America export that they can’t live without? Hollywood movies?

I’ve got GLD staying around 103/104 until 11/28
I would look for GLD to bounce off 100.74 (50%) and then regain the 20ma by then.
Once it regains the 20ma, I would look for a move to 106.42

I like the following BWB
MAR GLD 104/101/95 @ .90 Credit